By Olufunke Baruwa
On January 1, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s New Year message expressed optimism for Nigeria’s future, acknowledging the challenges of 2024 and outlining plans to improve the nation’s economy and citizens’ well-being.
The President highlighted positive indicators such as decreasing fuel prices, consecutive foreign trade surpluses, rising foreign reserves, and a strengthening Naira on the economic front. He also noted significant growth in the stock market and increased foreign investment, reflecting renewed confidence in Nigeria’s economy.
Addressing concerns over high inflation, particularly in food and essential drugs, the President committed to reducing inflation from 34.6% to 15% by boosting food production and promoting local manufacturing of essential goods. To enhance economic output, the government plans to establish the National Credit Guarantee Company by the second quarter of 2025 which aims to expand risk-sharing instruments for financial institutions, thereby increasing credit access for individuals and underserved groups like women and youth.
Emphasizing the importance of citizenship and shared values, President Tinubu announced the forthcoming National Values Charter, set to be unveiled in the first quarter of 2025. This charter aims to promote ethical principles, patriotism, and cooperation among Nigeria’s diverse population. The President further reiterated his commitment to youth inclusion by announcing the Youth Confab, scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2025 – an initiative that seeks to involve young Nigerians in nation-building efforts.
President Tinubu concluded by urging citizens to maintain faith in Nigeria and collaborate with the government to achieve a one trillion-dollar economy, emphasizing unity and focus in building a prosperous nation. He encouraged and prayed for Nigerians to be patient and that they will soon be rich in joy, success and good health.
Thank you, Mr. President, for these New Year resolutions, but what next? How do we move from rhetoric to action? Three critical points below are necessary for the government to put its money where its mouth is for Nigerians to really believe that our sacrifices have not been in vain in the course of nation-building.
First, The Economy
The New Year message by the President says that Nigeria’s economic indicators show positive trends, with decreasing fuel prices, foreign trade surpluses, rising foreign reserves, a stronger Naira, and record stock market growth. However, this does not fully represent the actual situation on the ground. A simple check on the streets, markets and hospitals will show that food and drug costs are on the increase daily and remain out of the reach pf ordinary Nigerians.
Mr. President also promised that in 2025, his government will intensify efforts to lower these costs, reduce inflation, and increase access to credit. He promised to establish the National Credit Guarantee Company in May to expand risk-sharing and support underserved groups to stimulate economic activity and improve credit access. However, concrete actions need to follow these New Year resolutions, and a crystal ball is scarcely needed to read the nation’s outlook from the available indices.
Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2025 reflects a blend of cautious optimism and ongoing challenges, influenced by recent policy reforms and global economic conditions. The African Development Bank (AfDB) forecasts Nigeria’s GDP growth to rise only marginally from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, driven by improved security, increased oil production, and stronger consumer demand. Inflation is expected to moderate from 31.6% in 2024 to 20.7% in 2025 as inflationary pressures ease.
The 2025 budget of 47 trillion naira (approximately $28.18 billion) is based on an oil price assumption of $75 per barrel and a target oil production of 2 million barrels per day. The budget anticipates a deficit of 13.8 trillion naira, about 3.87% of the estimated GDP. Efforts to combat oil theft and enhance production capacity are underway, with the government aiming to increase oil output to 3 million barrels per day by 2025. This initiative is crucial, given the oil sector’s significant contribution to Nigeria’s revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Otherwise, the budget will be scarcely financed.
Nigeria’s economic performance remains sensitive to global oil prices and demand, as well as domestic factors such as security and infrastructure development. The government’s commitment to policy reforms and economic diversification will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s economic trajectory in 2025. This message and promise to revitalise the economy must not be mere resolutions and promises as our very lives depend on it.
Next The Rule of Law
While Mr. President tasks Nigerians to become better citizens and uphold our devotion to Nigeria because moral rectitude and faith are fundamental to our success, one thing is needed more – the moral rectitude of the Executive, Judiciary and Legislature. This is because, to promote ethical principles and shared values under the National Identity Project, citizens cannot be the only ones held to high moral standards – elected and appointed officials must be held to even higher standards.
The Executive must be accountable, transparent and commit to judicious use of government resources at their disposal to better the lives of citizens. The Judiciary, as custodians of the law, must follow the principles of fairness, justice and equity, and ensure that everyone rich, poor, male or female have equal access to and are judged by the same principles. The Legislature must be the voice of the people and must recognise that their primary mandate is to make laws that protect and promote the rights and wellbeing of the constituencies they are elected to serve.
As the last hope of the common man and one of the enduring bastions of a true democracy, the rule of law must be upheld by all means necessary otherwise, the alternative is chaos and infamy.
Then, Infrastructure and Security
To implement these commitments, government must as a matter of urgency begin a strategic and structured fix of critical infrastructure across the country. No, this is not just a quick fix or window dressing of infrastructure across the already over bloated FCT Abuja, Lagos or other metropolitan cities but a call for urgent and critical infrastructure across the country that is inclusive. This is particularly crucial in rural and semi-urban areas where those at the margins of society either have never experienced or no longer have a recollection of what it means to have power, roads or hospitals and schools.
Those who have the means to advocate and bring the issue of insecurity to the front burner of public discourse or domain must continuously do so regardless of how repetitive and hoarse one must sound like a broken record. This a non-negotiable burden bestowed on many who do this in the hopes that somebody somewhere surely has a heart to listen and do what needs to be done to secure our lives. Enough of the carnage and destruction.
Otherwise, for many Nigerian children born in the late nineties and beyond, we risk a future where the reality of functional government hospitals, safety, clean water, good roads, standard schools and electricity will soon become a distant memory or folklore of a Nigeria that never was. For these ones, it is a double tragedy as they may never know what it means to enjoy some of life’s simple luxuries that development should bring to citizens in a democracy.
