By Farooq Kperogi

The searing torment that everyday folks are going through in Nigeria right now is so dire, so unbearably extreme, and so unexampled in its rawness that even diasporan Nigerians like me who live tens of thousands of miles away from home can feel it not just vicariously but also experientially.

The unending streams of requests for help to meet the most basic obligations of life that we get from previously proud, resourceful, and self-sufficient family members, friends, acquaintances, and even strangers are the conduits through which we have experiential encounters with the ongoing cost-of-living turmoil in the country.

The lower classes are sinking deeper into soul-depressing depths of poverty, despair, and hopelessness, and the middle class is so hobbled by the economic crunch that it is disappearing faster than soap bubbles. The lower and the middle classes are now united by a common sensation of emptiness, agony, and anxiety for the future.

Every day is worse, less hopeful, and more precarious than the previous day for most Nigerians. Even hope, which French philosopher François de La Rochefoucauld assured us is the last thing that dies in humans, is desperately going into a death spiral. That’s an ominous signal President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would do well to not take lightly.

Nigeria is famous for its superabundant supply of self-regenerating hope, even in the midst of the most nerve-racking existential strain. You know you’re dealing with a potentially explosive social rupture when hope is grasping for breath among people who are famed for feasting on hope.

The current state of affairs isn’t unavoidable. It’s the predictable consequence of the pig-headed pursuit of a ruinous policy of subsidy removal from petrol, the lifeblood of Nigeria. I sounded an early warning about this a month before Tinubu was inaugurated.

In my April 29, 2023 column titled “Six Agenda Items for Tinubu’s Success,” I specifically warned Tinubu to resist the neoliberal anti-subsidy seduction of Western financial institutions, which they have successfully brainwashed Nigerian economists and civil society members into not just accepting but also aggressively evangelizing.

I wrote: “I know that there is now an artfully manufactured consent, particularly among the gilded classes in Nigeria, about the undesirability of ‘fuel subsidy.’ I don’t care what it’s called, but any policy (call it deregulation, subsidy removal, appropriate pricing, etc.) that results in an arbitrary and unbearable hike in the price of petrol without a corresponding increase in the salaries of workers and an improvement in the living conditions of everyday people will sink Tinubu.”

I concluded: “I can assure Tinubu that if petrol price hikes deepen people’s misery, he’ll have a tough time governing.”

The dramatic spikes we have seen in abductions for ransom all over the country are attributable to the rising tide of unheard-of deprivation that the removal of petrol subsidies has activated. And that’s just one auxiliary after-effect of the removal of petrol subsidies without a cushion or an alternative.

Other after-effects are the total collapse of the informal sector and what remained of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. It also instigated the unprecedentedly hyper-inflationary pressures that are being exerted on the economy. Prices of basic goods and services and even of medications for common illnesses are now beyond the reach of people. That’s an unsustainable magnitude of agony.

But it was always obvious to anyone with even a halfway functioning brain that removing petrol subsidies in a weak, oil-producing economy that is organically petrol dependent, that has no well-developed public transportation system, that has weak infrastructures, and that is the poverty capital of the world would trigger infernal anguish on the vast majority of the people and tank the economy to the ground.

These are not birth pangs. They are not the pains before the gains. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel is condemned to unrelieved darkness. The blight Nigerians are contending with now is the certain and inevitable result of a conscienceless implementation of disconnected and irrelevant economic policies inspired from outside Nigeria.

I came of age during General Ibrahim Babangida’s regime. IBB started the so-called Structural Adjustment Programs (removal of subsidies, devaluation of the naira, mass retrenchment, etc.), which inaugurated Nigeria’s descent into the abyss. I heard the exact same things the current government is spouting during IBB’s time: that it would get worse before it got better, that after the birth pangs a big bouncing baby would be born, that there was delayed gratification awaiting us if only we could be a little more patient.

None of the promises materialized. Instead, suffering was elevated to crushing heights. Advanced Fee Fraud (also called 419) blossomed. Corruption was fertilized. Brain drain to the West got wings. This period also unleashed the naira’s irrecoverable slide into the deep hole of worthlessness.

Decades after, the same SAP about which hundreds of books and articles have been written and whose irreversible damage we continually lament, has been artfully repackaged, disguised, deodorized, and huckstered by a well-oiled gang of soulless apes who deployed all manner of clever rhetorical trickery to coax Nigerians into consenting to their own self-incineration.

The idea that petrol subsidies had to go because they were riddled with corruption and that they consumed a disproportionate share of our national budget is a mere propagandistic cop-out. If petrol subsidy administration is rid of corruption (that is perpetrated in cahoots with the government, which explains why no “subsidy thief” has ever been apprehended much less brought to justice), it would consume no greater share of our national budget than any governmental obligation.

It certainly won’t be anywhere near the colossal venality that is perpetuated at the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development under the guise of giving money to the poor.

The truth is that we have no original, independent thinkers among people who make or influence economic policies in Nigeria. They are all hopelessly mindless parrots of ill-comprehended economic prescriptions of the Bretton Woods institutions. They do not have the cognitive and intellectual sophistication to transcend what I call derivative or regurgitative knowledge.

There is not a single example of a country in the world that has developed on the basis of the prescriptions of the World Bank and the IMF. On the contrary, the only countries that have achieved inclusive growth and development outside the West are precisely the countries that have bucked the World Bank and the IMF. And every country that uncritically adopts the recommendations of these institutions has been wracked by utter devastation.

Unfortunately, if either Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi were president today, Nigeria would experience exactly what it is going through now. Like Tinubu, Atiku and Obi said they would remove petrol subsidies “on day one.” When you remove petrol subsidies “on day one” in a desperately poor, inordinately petrol-supported economy with no public transportation, you get what Nigerians are going through now. It’s not rocket science.

Similarly, both Atiku and Obi said they would float the naira and let its fate be determined by the vagaries of demand and supply. When you do that in an import-dependent economy, you can’t escape what the naira is going through now.

Atiku tweeted in March 2021—and in several policy documents—that “Nigeria must move towards a single exchange rate to be determined by market forces.”

On April 9, 2022, Obi also tweeted: “The truth is that for long market forces have not determined the exchange rate of the Naira…. It has to end. Let the exchange rate be determined by the forces of demand and supply. It’s that simple.”

In other words, Tinubu is doing exactly what Atiku and Obi had proposed they would do, and the results would have been the same. The hyperinflation and hurt Nigerians are going through now won’t have been evaded because it is Atiku or Obi who removed petrol subsidies “from day one.” The naira’s glide to the bottom wouldn’t have been avoided because Atiku or Obi “floated” the naira.

That is why Atiku- or Obi-supporting critics of Tinubu come across as ignorant partisans who have drunk the Kool-Aid of their cult leaders. Atiku and Obi supporters should be grateful that their idols are not president today. They would have been bearing the reputational brunt of the boneheaded, discredited rightwing economic policies they also advocated, which have thrown Nigeria into the current mess.

Interestingly, in response to Obi’s 2022 tweet rhapsodizing over the imperative of subjecting the naira to the “forces of demand and supply,” a supporter of his by the name of Abel (with the handle @governance9ja) wrote a riposte, which has turned out to be prescient. He wrote: “So @PeterObi will float the currency for a country where most factor inputs into local manufacturing is imported? We already have cost push inflation reducing real income of many Nigerians. Floating naira will ruin many households. @PeterObi and @OfficialABAT are two of a kind.”

Obi supporters who have wet dreams of a Nirvana if Obi were president should wake up. His economic policies are exactly like Tinubu’s. Personalities aren’t the issue; policies are.

Tinubu and his team need to face the reality confronting them and change course. I know that Nigeria has been so polluted by neoliberal propaganda that even news that the government was paying subsidies through the backdoor to stop petrol prices from getting to N1,000 per liter was seized upon by the opposition to poohpooh the government, which compelled the government to deny paying any subsidies.

I’ve never seen this level of self-crushing inanity in my life. Assistance to the needy (which is what subsidy literally means) is now a dirty word that everyone avoids like the plague.

But the government should know that even hope is dying in Nigeria. When a usually hopeful nation spawns armies of hopeless and angry people through thoughtless economic policies dictated by outsiders, it sows and nurtures the seeds of its self-destruction.

Sports, especially football, have opiatic effects on Nigerians. I call it kinetic booze. The ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) football competition has been remarkable in numbing the people’s terrible pain and pangs of hunger. Since this thing started, morbid fears of violent death and of mass abduction get forgotten every night in sporty ecstasy. “Let’s give them opium, and let them sleep and dream.” That is from Miguel de Unamuno’s Don Manuel, a fictional Catholic priest with no belief in afterlife but who keeps himself happy doing good. We kill our misery drinking football to stupor. We dream of winning the next match and the next with the cup of victory. We are happy. The government should be happy too – and I think it is. Like all festivals, however, this season must end – and it will on Sunday, 11 February. But then, government won’t be government again if it does not have for the people another means of “illusory happiness.”

But what is at stake in AFCON’s semifinal match on Wednesday between Nigeria and South Africa is more than football. Every goal scored by either side will go to settling some mordant scores. We watched the AFCON quarter final match between tiny Cape Verde and big South Africa on Saturday night. Was that really a match between those two? Nigerians took it as their war; they say South Africans are not our friends. We invested money, men and emotions in their freedom from apartheid. We lost every kobo of those investments. The harvest from that field has been barns of hurtful engagements on all fronts. They do not hide their disdain for us; they dislike us – in sports and in politics, in business and in everything.

From banking to pay TV to food retailing, and from telecom to sports, Nigeria and South Africa have teams slugging it out. In football, South Africa’s Bafana Bafana will face Nigeria’s Super Eagles in the AFCON semifinal on Wednesday at 6pm. In telecoms, the fixture has always been Nigeria’s Globacom versus South Africa’s MTN. They play in Nigeria and have played in Ghana. I think they play in a few other places. It has been intriguingly tough for the Nigerian side but it is significant that Glo has diligently manned the post to the anger and discomfort of the competition from outside.

When mobile telephony was launched here in 2001, we were stunned that we made one second’s call and paid for 60 seconds. Nigerians grumbled, they whined and complained. We demanded that we should be billed based on our consumption. A strong pushback, led by MTN, said no, billing per-second was not possible here – but it was possible in South Africa where it came from. We were helpless until 2003 when indigenous Globacom came in and set us free from the snares of the alien.

Trapped tigers when freed feed on their helpers. That is why we say ingrates are not better than thieves (Eni t’a se l’óore tí kò dúpé, bí olósà kóni l’érù lo ni). We push delicious bush meat to them, they unleash on us snakes. People have died; people have lost valuable investments in South Africa just because they are Nigerians. When President Bola Tinubu and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa met at the United Nations headquarters in New York in September last year, they hugged as brothers and their countries as friends. But, “what greater wound is there than a false friend” (Sophocles). Even in international relations and politics, friendship should be a two-way street.

Here, it is breached. A Nigerian diplomat was quoted by Paris-based English quarterly magazine, The Africa Report in its September 2023 edition as saying that “there are over 100 South African businesses in Nigeria” but “there are less than 10 registered Nigerian companies in South Africa.” The magazine goes further to note that “several Nigerian businesses have experienced little success in South Africa and exited.” It gave examples. Every fair and foul move you see on the football field of play is displayed across other sectors where Nigeria and South Africa engage. In most cases, the Nigerian side always loses because of unfair deals -and because of the Nigerian state’s peculiar I-don’t-care attitude to such challenges.

There is this character, Wago, in Elechi Amadi’s The Great Ponds. Wago is a fearsome, fearless champion who does not fight fair. He does everything to have his way: he bullies, he threatens, he does sorcery. He does not say sorry and will not beg whenever he is proven wrong; even his plays are hard tackles. “I am Wago, the leopard-killer,” boastful and haughty, he tells his terror-stricken listeners. He thinks his strength represents his village’s superiority over the other villages. He sets out to subdue his opponents and hoists up his community as the ultimate dispenser of favours. And he has had his way many times. Now, he must fight this war over the great ponds of Wagaba. Wago has an old rival to fight and settle all claims, once and for all. If his rival falls, he rises above all men, and his village becomes the exclusive owner of the ponds that serve all. The story ends with Wago and his land failing, disastrously – a victim of his own dark ways of doing the business of war.

Powerful entities, countries, strong men and their ways always lead me to Wago’s story. South Africa brought the long word ‘xenophobia’ into my consciousness. And, I am not alone. In business, they loathe, bully and muzzle whatever is Nigerian – even on our own soil. They milk us right here – how much was your DSTV subscription three months ago? How much is it now? Their telecoms foothold here, MTN, what is your experience doing business with it? Television station owners in Nigeria should also have stories to tell of their experiences with their South African host. So, it was not a surprise to see Nigerians on Saturday fully backing Cape Verde in wishes and prayers against South Africa. My friends who supported South Africa said they did so not out of love. They said Nigeria peeling and munching the Bafana Bafana in the semifinal would be sweet revenge for that country’s past and present monkeying acts. Another friend who has relations in South Africa did not want Nigeria to face that country in the semifinal “because we will defeat them and our people may be targets of attacks in South Africa.” But, for how long will that fear alter the direction of our supplication?

What they do to us here, we dare not do to them there. I maintain more than one telephone line because my job demands that I do. I have a Glo line and an MTN line. I have one other. Two weeks ago, my MTN line stopped working. The company said the line was barred because I had not linked the SIM with my NIN. But that was a lie. I did that a long time ago – the same day I linked my Glo line which is still working – perfectly. It turned out that I was just one person out of millions of Nigerians who suffered that barring of lines. While the problem was across all service providers, the difference has been in how customers are treated.

The unjust penalty was not the biggest headache victims have had to contend with. Getting it fixed is a pilgrimage of sorts to the way the behemoth from South Africa treats its Nigerian customers. It has been a yellow-fever experience for millions everywhere they go. At all the centres where I went to try to do as I was ordered, I met people under the searing rays of the sun – waiting for attention. They are still there in tens and scores, suffering and sweating. I finally got my line fixed on Friday but I will be naive to think that it will not happen again.

The Ogiyan of Ejigbo in Osun State, Oba Omowonuola Oyeyode Oyesosin, who clocked 50 years on the throne a few days ago, is one of the deepest speakers of Yoruba language I have (yet) met. About a decade ago, he told me that people who are too big for reprimand will ultimately ruin their society (a tóbi má se é bá wí, wón máa nba ìlú jé ni). South Africa is big in everything good and bad. Until 1989, it was a nuclear power on the African continent. I remember I joked with my friends when in October 2015, the Muhammadu Buhari regime slammed a $5.2billion fine on MTN for failing to disconnect unregistered phone lines. I told my friends that if at all anything would be paid, the money would not come from the South African pocket. I told my friends that they and all other Nigerians who were on that network would pay the fine. Reports said the company eventually negotiated its way out, settling Nigeria with $1.7billion. But, who really paid?

Certainly, Nigerians. And the practice that led to that fine, was it fixed? If it was properly fixed, my line and millions of others would not be axed two weeks ago. The same company recently declared a trade dispute with Globacom over interconnectivity fees. MTN claimed N7.05 billion from Globacom; Globacom fought back with counterclaims. A threat to disconnect Glo lines was made and was rebuffed by the threatened. The Bola Tinubu government did well here; it intervened and asked both parties to do reconciliation. Reports say the reconciliation exercise brought the figure down from N7.05 billion to N2.3billion. I had thought that hyperbole existed only in literary and rhetorical heavens. However, with this, I could see that making exaggerated claims can serve as havens if you are big enough. But, should there not be consequences for such a hand-of-God attempt at scoring a goal against an opponent? There will be none. We are dealing with a well-heeled pampered behemoth here.

If you call your food bowl a po, your neighbour will poo into it. It is how you dress that you will be addressed. We allow free-range hunters to poach our elephants. And, because big misfortunes have wrestled down the giant, small ones are finding the courage to play with its balls. Someone said it wasn’t only in Nigeria they do what they do. They say business cemeteries in Ghana, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, etc contain skulls of those who dared the powerful. For too long, we’ve played soft with South Africa and its twigs. We’ve got wounded and stretchered off the field. That is not how to win against a team of bullies. There should be reciprocal gestures – you bite me, I bite you. A country that will survive and be respected will protect its own and, while dealing with the outside, do as Niccolo Machiavelli counseled: Act as “a true friend and a true enemy” at the same time.

The AFCON semifinal match coming up on Wednesday is a metaphor for settling scores. People who think they are powerful wear the costume of the gods. They toy with the rules and do whatever they like without consequences. Powerful persons and entities are gods; impunity is their turf. Whatever they do, you can’t call them to account. That is why they are gods – they are pampered with sweets of unquestionableness. South Africa, a country beautified with our feathers, with its businesses, does that with us routinely at home and abroad. As of 2019, official records in Nigeria showed that we lost 118 lives to xenophobic attacks in South Africa, 13 by the South African police. I do not have more current figures. That country looks down on us with disgust because we indulge it – even when the field of play is built on our soil.

My history teacher in secondary modern school took me through the stories of imperial Rome, Hannibal, Carthage, the three Punic Wars and delenda est Carthago – the patriotic, defiant phrase which ended Cato’s every speech in the senate. Defeating South Africa on Wednesday will serve some poetic justice.

Religion is a social phenomenon. It is a religion that is confusing, not God. Man-made religions. God did not! God is merciful and not difficult to please. Therefore, the biblical phrase “Do for others as you would have them do for you.” Be kind, be caring, and be loving. Treat everyone with respect and understanding. Do not harm and do as your father teaches you inside your heart. Does he tell you that you should say mean things? If so, that is not god. That is religion.

The mere fact that there are so many religions in existence boggles my mind. How can followers attest that theirs is the absolute “truth” and that it should be followed? Religion is nothing more than a social construct, conceived by con men and administered by those who seek fortune and control over others.

As a pejorative term, indoctrination implies forcibly or coercively causing people to act and think based on a certain ideology. Some secular critics believe that all religions indoctrinate their adherents, as children, and the accusation is made in the case of religious extremism. Here it has been argued, contrary to the established view that delusional states of mind are epistemically problematic, that delusions can (at least under certain circumstances) exhibit a quality called ‘epistemic innocence’. That is, they may ‘[deliver] a significant epistemic benefit, that could not be obtained otherwise’.

According to Wikipedia:

Indoctrination is the process of inculcating a person with ideas, attitudes, cognitive strategies, or professional methodologies (see doctrine). Humans are social animals inescapably shaped by cultural context, and thus some degree of indoctrination is implicit in the parent–child relationship and has an essential function in forming stable communities of shared values. Because we have mirror neurons in common and are social creatures, humans can instantly and subconsciously match one another’s emotions. We share feelings.

Certainly, for sure, a delusion is a fixed false belief based on an inaccurate interpretation of an external reality despite evidence to the contrary. Delusions are false beliefs or judgments about external reality. Not all beliefs and judgments can be characterized this way, because even if calibration is incorrect then relative associations can still be consistent and true. This is why so much of physics is tenable despite the limitations of our access. However, many of our beliefs are delusional – and we are unaware of this fact until some frameshift occurs in our experience.

Characteristically, since the mention of God’s name became money making machine, every Tom, Dick and Harry wants a slice. Put differently, in our religious bigotry and manipulation, the African man just like our rulers (leaders), uses the devil as an excuse for his failures, rather than getting rid of the cankerworm called corruption that has eaten every part of governance system and the failure to keep the numerous promises made to citizens to get their votes, they are even asking us to pray. Some foolish ones would gather and starve themselves (fasting and praying), and what do they (leaders) do in return, they increase their looting, their lies, and their dishonesty. 

Moreover, in life the moment you refuse to admit a wrong choice you made which led to your immediate condition, you will find it difficult to move past that stage regardless of how many days you spend praying, fasting, rolling on the floor, and knocking your head against the wall. In addition, the popular belief that religion is the cause of the world’s bloodiest conflicts is central to our modern conviction that faith and politics should never mix for any reason. Therefore, it is important to separate the two of them ‘faith and politics’.

Conclusively, It is very likely, that people get more religious if times are tough. As such, religious activities are in decline in the Western world where they originate from – not only in the Western world but in every developed country including Japan and South Korea. Religion is based on old scrolls, the modern world is based on science. It is not surprising that belief in old book scrolls is in decline. Whereas, it is a booming business in third-world countries where there is a trust deficit and deficiencies in governance and public policies.

Finally permit me to share with you the profound words of Matthew Hassan Kukah, the current bishop of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Sokoto. Bishop Kukah characteristically posited: “We must be ready to embrace modernity and work out how to preserve our religions and cultures without turning religion into a tool for tyranny”

Richard Odusanya

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