Diego Maradona has died at the age of 60 after suffering a cardiac arrest. The World Cup winner passed away at his home in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Wednesday afternoon.
Earlier this month, Maradona was hospitalised and required surgery after suffering a blood clot on his brain. After being discharged from the hospital, he was taken to a recovery clinic where he was treated for alcohol dependency.
The Argentine is regarded as one of the greatest players of all time after guiding his nation to success at the World Cup in 1986. The tournament is also famous for Maradona’s ‘Hand of God’ goal which helped knock England out at the quarter-final stage.
Diego Maradona led Argentina to victory at the World Cup in 1986 (Sipa/REX) Diego Maradona’s infamous ‘Hand of God’ goal against England at the 1986 World Cup (Bob Thomas Sports Photography)
In that same game, Maradona was also responsible for scoring one of the greatest goals in World Cup history as he dribbled from his own half through England’s entire defence. Maradona also won several titles during his club career with Boca Juniors, Barcelona and Napoli.
Diego Maradona required surgery for a blood clot on his brain earlier in November (AFP via Getty)
Hauwa has fought the battle against Sickle Cell Anaemia for decades, and has remained resilient in the face of it all. In a particular year, Hauwa says she was sick every month.
One day as she lay sick struggling for her life and, sadly, wishing for death, she cast a look aside at her mum, on her praying mat, shedding tears.
Beside her, her father, whose resources she knew she had depleted so substantially egged her on in the battle for life. He told her God could not allow her have a sickness she could not overcome.
With a doting father playing the encourager, and loving mother praying and weeping, Hauwa resolved to stay alive. And she did.
She tells her story in this brief video, and pleads for many to come to the help of indigent ‘sicklers’, as they are often derogatory referred to. Hauwa recounts, also, the many names like witch, ‘Ogbanje’,, etc they are called.
After she sacrificial offered to do this video, breaking off her routine and introducing extra stress, Hauwa fell Ill, again, but today she is up and kicking.
“In that day ungodly fools will not be heroes. Wealthy cheaters will not be respected as outstanding citizens” (Isaiah 32:5 New Living Translation).
One of the evils under the sun is that ungodly fools have become the heroes of many people and cheats are being celebrated as VIPs. The reward system in most societies is tilted in favour of crooks. In many cases, it is not the best that gets to the top; it is the crafty ones. Dishonest people know how to manipulate the system to their advantage.
How can it be well with the people of societies where it is believed that honesty does not pay and hard work is not rewarded? It is no wonder that many youths pander towards entertainment because societies have become vainer than ever – very empty, no substance.
In a particular developing country, the government that cannot pay attractive salaries to its diligent professionals considered it appropriate to lavish gifts on the winner of a secular reality show that contributed nothing significant to national development. While diligent professionals like medical doctors and other health care providers, academics, engineers, lawyers, among others, earn a pittance, the government rewarded promoters of immorality on a live television show!
Isaiah 32:5 says, “In that day ungodly fools will not be heroes. Wealthy cheaters will not be respected as outstanding citizens” (New Living Translation). This scripture talks about what would happen under the reign of a righteous king in Judah (verse 1) after the return of the people from the exile. Under this righteous king, there would be no more injustice. Ungodly fools would not be heroes and wealthy cheaters would not be respected as outstanding citizens.
In another sense, this scripture is a prophecy about the return of the righteous king, Jesus Christ, who will reign with justice. Isaiah 11:3-5 says, “His delight is in the fear of the LORD, and He shall not judge by the sight of His eyes, nor decide by the hearing of His ears; but with righteousness He shall judge the poor, and decide with equity for the meek of the earth; He shall strike the earth with the rod of His mouth, and with the breath of His lips He shall slay the wicked. Righteousness shall be the belt of His loins, and faithfulness the belt of His waist” (New King James Version).
However, Isaiah 32:5 could be seen as the opposite of what obtains in many societies today. It speaks to the situation of most societies today. “In that day ungodly fools will not be heroes. Wealthy cheaters will not be respected as outstanding citizens” (Isaiah 32:5 New Living Translation). Who are your heroes? Are they ungodly fools and wealthy cheaters?
The scripture continues in verses 6-7: “Everyone will recognize ungodly fools for what they are. They spread lies about the LORD; they deprive the hungry of food and give no water to the thirsty. The smooth tricks of evil people will be exposed, including all the lies they use to oppress the poor in the courts” (New Living Translation).
Many people, including those in the church especially the youths, are becoming vain in their thoughts. They don’t have the right people as their role models. Their heroes are the celebrities whose lives are not founded upon the Word of God or their values Bible-based.
However, because these ungodly fools have a huge following online and are famous and wealthy, many people want to and pray to be like them! This is in spite of the crises, confusion, and abnormalities in the lives of these celebrities that should never make any right-thinking person to choose them as their heroes, mentors or role models.
Psalm 14:1 says, “The fool has said in his heart, ‘There is no God.’ They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none who does good” (New King James Version). Psalm 53:1 says a similar thing. Should anyone who calls himself a child of God make such a fool his hero, mentor, or role model?
Many of these ungodly celebrities live in defiance of God, have no home or have been divorced multiple times with children for different men or from different women. Some of them are drug addicts and social deviants or rebels. They have no peace in their lives though they give the public the impression that all is well with them. They live a fake life, a life of pretence. What is seen of them by the unsuspecting public is a mere façade. Unfortunately, many of their fans are deceived and still choose these ungodly fools as their heroes.
Is it not sad that some people who started singing in the children church and matured into the adult choir where they were trained, including how to play different musical instruments, have now abandoned the church? They have been led astray by the ungodly fools that they have chosen as their heroes. The hunger and thirst for fame and money like the secular musicians, who have become their idols, have made them not to sing in praise of God but sing what will sell such as sex, sinful pleasure and nonsensical and vulgar lyrics.
The Bible says, “Do not be deceived: ‘Evil company corrupts good habits’” (1 Corinthians 15:33 New King James Version). He who walks with wise men will be wise, but the companion of fools will be destroyed (Proverbs 13:20). Avoid the company of ungodly fools.
Who is your hero? Does he believe in the living God? Are his values derived from the Bible? Does he adhere to the teachings of the Bible? Is your goal to receive the crowns from God or to receive honours from the world?
The people of the world know those to give awards, those to recognize and celebrate – those who participate in their race, not in the race that the Bible says God has set before believers (Hebrews 12:1). It is logical that you must participate in a race for you to receive medals or prizes (Philippians 3:14; 2 Timothy 4:7-8). Those who desire to become celebrities like their ungodly fools should be ready to run the world’s race. Romans 3:15 describes such would-be celebrities: “They race for the honour of sinner-of-the-year” (The Message).
Romans 1:32 gives us a clear picture of those crowning such participants in their sinful race as celebrities: “And it’s not as if they don’t know better. They know perfectly well they’re spitting in God’s face. And they don’t care – worse, they hand out prizes to those who do the worst things best!” (The Message).
Don’t make ungodly fools your heroes or wealthy cheaters your role models. Everything does not end here on earth. Fame will end here on earth. Wealth won’t follow anyone into the grave. But eternity with God or in hell-fire is unending.
The Bible warns, “Do not be unequally yoked together with unbelievers. For what fellowship has righteousness with lawlessness? And what communion has light with darkness? And what accord has Christ with Belial? Or what part has a believer with an unbeliever? And what agreement has the temple of God with idols? For you are the temple of the living God” (2 Corinthians 6:14-16a New King James Version).
Don’t make ungodly fools your role model so that your life won’t be like theirs and you won’t end your life like theirs. Ephesians 5:15 says to be careful how you live, not as fools but as those who are wise. “The wise shall inherit glory, but shame shall be the legacy of fools” (Proverbs 3:35 New King James Version).
TAKE ACTION!
If you are not born again, you need to give your life to Jesus now. I urge you to take the following steps: *Admit you are a sinner and you cannot save yourself and repent of your sins. *Confess Jesus as your Lord and Saviour. *Renounce your past way of life – your relationship with the devil and his works. *Invite Jesus into your life. *As a mark of seriousness to mature in the faith, start attending a Bible-believing and Bible-teaching church. There they will teach you how to grow in the Kingdom of God.
Kindly say this prayer now: O Lord God, I come unto you today. I know I am a sinner and I cannot save myself. I believe that Jesus is the Son of God who died on the cross to save me and resurrected the third day. I repent of my sins and confess Jesus as my Lord and Saviour. I surrender my life to Jesus now and invite Him into my heart. By this prayer, I know I am saved. Thank you, Jesus, for saving me and making me a child of God.
I believe you have said this prayer from your heart. Congratulations! You will need to join a Bible-believing and Bible-teaching church in your area where they will teach you how to live your new life in Christ Jesus. I pray that you flourish like the palm tree and grow like the cedar of Lebanon. May you grow into Christ in all things and become all God wants you to be. I will be glad to hear from you. The LORD be with you.
PRAYER POINTS: Father, I shall not allow an evil company to corrupt my good habits. I shall not be unequally yoked with unbelievers. Ungodly fools shall not become my heroes in Jesus’ name.
▪︎ Banso, an Abuja-based Minister, heads Cedar Ministry International, and can be reached at [email protected], [email protected]; Tel No: +2348155744752, +2348033113523; and WhatsApp No: +2349081295947
Some occurrences are so puzzling that understanding them and how they happen can intriguing.
A man in Tana River County has left fellow Kenyans scratching their heads after it emerged that he impregnated three sisters, who are triplets, all at once.
Recently, the 16-year-olds gave birth through Caesarian sections. Two of the sisters had twins while one delivered triplets. However, one of her infants died, leaving her also with two babies like her siblings.
Interestingly, the suspect, who worked at their home as a gardener, managed to keep each of the three relationships secret.
“We did not know he was having an affair with all of us because we did not share that bit with one another,” the eldest of the siblings told the DailyNation.
The youngest said the man was so nice and he would always give her money as well as buy gifts for her.
“He used to give me pocket money and would sometimes buy me clothes. He was so nice to me. I did not know he was doing the same to my sisters,” she said.
The Mother Didn’t Know
The mother of the three girls said that at no one time did she suspect anything despite them buying new things every now and then.
Millicent Mwema recalled that she was alerted by text messages between the gardener and one of her daughters, but it was too late as they were all in the family way.
“I came to know that they were all pregnant and were planning abortions. When I ambushed them the following day at dawn and asked them to take a pregnancy test, one of them ran away and the other two confessed even before taking the test,” she said.
The minors would have sat their KCPE exam next year, but now they have to take care of their children first.
The culprit was reported to have vanished and is being sought by the police. (Litkenya)
Last week the Cable News Network (CNN) released what it terms “a carefully and meticulously researched” Report on the Lekki Toll Gate murder. The Report contained in a video footage, which is still making its rounds, heavily indicts the Nigerian authorities in the murder of unarmed young peaceful protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate on 20-10-2020. The footage shows an army truck being driven from army barracks Bonny Camp to Lekki Toll Gate (in fact the CCTV footage of the murder which was played last Saturday by the Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry showed that not less than seven military trucks were deployed to Lekki Toll Gate by the Nigerian military on that 20-10-2020). The CNN Report also shows mutilated human corpses lying in the pool of human blood; soldiers opening fire on protesters who were yelling, taking cover and scampering for safety; Nigerian flags splashed with human blood and some weeping protesters granting interview in corroboration of the shooting and murder.
First, the military dismissed the Lekki 20-10-2020 murder as fake news. Federal Attorney-General Abubakar Malami SAN said that the murder might have been committed by hoodlums in army uniform not the military itself. Initially Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu authoritatively announced to the whole world that no protester was killed in the shooting. But when he spoke to the CNN, he retracted and admitted that only two fatalities were recorded except that he was not the person who invited the military to shoot and kill. Upon hearing this, the same military which earlier dismissed the Lekki 20-10-2020 murder as fake news, turned round to say that it was Babajide Sanwo-Olu who invited them to Lekki to do the shooting except that the military never shot a live bullet at the protesters. Testifying for the army, the Chief of Army Staff, Lt.-Gen. Tukur Buratai said that the Nigerian Army is a professional army which will never operate outside the Rules of Engagement (ROE). In his testimony last week ostensibly in defence of the military and the Federal government, Hon. Minister of Information and Culture Lai Mohammed, lambasted the CNN. Calling for sanctions against the CNN, Lai said that the CNN’s Report fell short of standards in international journalism. He alleges that the Nigerian soldiers fired blank bullets in the thin air not at the young protesters as the CNN and others allege. In its response to the above, the CNN maintains that it glibly stands by its Report. It says its Report is not based on hearsay but on the testimonies of CNN staffers and dozens of witnesses and verified footage of soldiers shooting in the direction of the protesters. “They pointed their guns at us and they started shooting”, said Sarah, a protester-eye witness, to the CNN,
The manifest contradictions in the above concocted testimonies of the Nigerian authorities testify that they are trying to cover up the murder. But the truth of the matter is that the murder was streamed live, and, most Nigerians watched it live. I myself also watched it live. I must confess that I was simply flabbergasted by the sporadic shooting and wailing that had engulfed the Lekki Toll Gate on that 20-10-2020. So, the shooting and murder are notorious facts requiring no proof. We don’t even need a CNN Report to convince us of what we already know about the Lekki Toll Gate murder. Therefore a denial of the shooting and murder by the Nigerian authorities does not make sense at all. There are certain facts you don’t deny in public except you want to make a fool of yourself.
If the military only fired blank bullets in the thin air as Lai claims, how come there were mutilated human corpses lying in the pool of human blood after the shooting? If the military didn’t shoot at the protesters, why were the Nigerian flags carried by the protesters smeared with human blood? If the military didn’t fire live bullets, why was the scene of the crime littered with bullet casings and pellets after the shooting and murder? If the military did not fire live bullets at the protesters, why were the protesters who suffered bullet wounds admitted to the hospitals? If the military did not fire live bullets that killed some protesters, why are the parents of the murdered protesters still crying till date and refusing to be consoled by anyone? If the soldiers didn’t open fire on the protesters, why did Chizoba Francisca Agu, a 27-year protester who was badly shot in the face by the soldiers at Lekki Toll Gate, die of gun wounds on 4th November 2020? The sad aspect, as revealed by the ongoing Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry probing the Lekki 20-10-2020 murder, is that the soldiers who were deplored to Lekki Toll Gate on that day were not professional soldiers but small-boy soldiers still undergoing training at the military schools. Small wonder they opened fire on the protesters.
Contrary to Buratai’s testimony, the Nigerian Army, with the greatest respect, lacks professionalism. The Nigerian army does not observe ROE. The Nigerian army has developed a somewhat strange proclivity for shooting and killing unarmed protesting civilians. Or, simply put, killing unarmed protesters is in the DNA of the Nigerian army. How? Following the attack by the army on the Shia Muslim community ostensibly to rescue the Chief of Army Staff from alleged assassination, about 1,000 unarmed protesting civilians (most of whom were young people) were shot at and killed in Zaria on or around 12th December 2015. Till date no justice for the victims of Zaria massacre. Then on February 9, 2016 the Nigerian soldiers were deployed to shoot and kill countless unarmed young pro-Biafra protesters who were peacefully holding prayers inside the football field of Ngwa High School, Aba in Abia State. No justice for the victims of that barbaric murder till date despite popular outcry to that effect. Then during the Biafran Day celebration on May 30 2016, the Nigerian soldiers were again dispatched to fire bullets that killed and injured over 30 unarmed civilians at Nkpor-Agu, Niger Bridge, Onitsha and Asaba respectively. As we speak, killer-soldiers have been deployed to Obigbo, Rivers State to be killing unarmed civilians there. The number of protesting youngsters killed at the Lekki Toll Gate is negligible compared to the number of unarmed civilians murdered at Obigbo, Rivers State. The International Society for Civil Liberties & Rule of Law reports that the army has killed over 60 defenceless civilians and injured over 100 civilians in the Obigbo massacre.
All said, the Lekki 20-10-2020 tragic murder has cut deep into the heart of the nation. No dirty politics or pseudo-rationalization can erase the murder from our collective memory. All over the civilized world soldiers do not open fire on peaceful protesters except in Nigeria. It is probably only in Nigeria that trigger-happy men in uniform can shoot and kill innocent civilians anytime and get away with it. Can you imagine a police aide attached to the Speaker of House of Representatives opening fire and killing an innocent street vendor last Thursday?. Sad. It appears the army and the police are unrepentant and incorrigible. So, justice for the murdered street vendor. His killer should be charged for murder and sentenced to death upon conviction. Full stop. Justice for the murdered Lekki protesters. By opening fire on peaceful protesters and killing them, the Nigerian soldiers are in fragrant violation of section 217(2)(c)(d) of the 1999 Constitution which stipulates that soldiers cannot intervene in civil life to maintain peace except when called upon to do so by the President with the concurrence of the National Assembly. With overwhelming concrete, compelling and weighty evidence at the public disposal, the soldier-culprits should be brought to justice.(Thisdaylive)
US President-elect Joe Biden’s pledge to make diplomacy “the first instrument of American power” represents a welcome departure from President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to the world. But crafting a diplomacy-first US foreign policy will require revamping America’s foreign policy institutions.
WASHINGTON, DC – US President-elect Joe Biden has made it clear that diplomacy will be at the centre of his administration’s foreign policy. Biden has pledged to rejoin the Paris climate agreement on day one of his administration, recommit to NATO allies, return the United States to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and convene a “Summit for Democracy” to “renew the spirit and shared purpose of the nations of the free world.” As he wrote in Foreign Affairs in March, “diplomacy should be the first instrument of American power.”
Rebuilding America’s treaties and alliances will be a welcome development after four years of President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to the world. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy has eroded the country’s relationships with its allies and impeded its ability to confront increasingly complex global challenges such as pandemics, climate change, nuclear proliferation, democratic backsliding, and inequitable trade practices.
But crafting a diplomacy-first foreign policy to address issues like these depends on more than the new administration’s policy choices in its first year, as important as they will be. It requires fundamentally revamping the relevant US institutions to make diplomacy and development the permanent centre of foreign and national security policy.
Such efforts should begin with a rethink of what security is and whom it is for. Practitioners and political scientists have traditionally defined security in the narrow sense of protecting a nation-state’s territorial integrity and political independence, which naturally leads to a focus on military capabilities.
But national security should actually mean protecting people from the threats – ranging from disease and violence to fire and floods – that affect their everyday lives. The fact that these threats disrupt the most vulnerable communities the most is a result of policy, not chance. Security must therefore begin with developing a set of national and global tools to reduce the risks that these groups face.
Diplomacy, on this calculus, starts at home. If pandemics threaten national security, for example, then the US will need to invest in a more robust health system while substantially ramping up its engagement in international institutions like the World Health Organisation to prepare for the next virus.
If political violence threatens Americans’ safety – and New America has shown that more Americans have died from right-wing terrorism than from jihadi terrorism since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US – then the US will need to invest more in tracking tools at home and abroad. We must also invest in rebuilding trust in our democratic institutions, including our voting system, while working with partners around the world to counter democratic backsliding and fight the spread of disinformation.
Likewise, if unequal Internet access prevents some Americans from obtaining education and health care, as well as a growing number of government and private services, then the US government must focus on how to make digital connectivity as ubiquitous as electricity across the country. At the same time, it must work with other governments and international organisations to create a far more equal and accessible digital world.
A Biden administration should also devise a plan to reinvent the US State Department, starting with the Foreign Service. As one of us recently argued in the journal Democracy, the twentieth-century conception of the Foreign Service as a corps of career officials “deprives the United States of the talent, connections, and agility we need to advance national interests and address global challenges effectively in the twenty-first century.” A service that welcomed the talents of professionals from NGOs, universities, and faith-based groups, among others, would be better equipped to tackle complex transnational problems that demand personnel from diverse backgrounds with a wide range of experience and expertise.
Finally, a diplomacy-first US foreign policy would recognise a far greater role for development, which requires its own diplomacy. Ideally, a Biden administration would work with Congress to overhaul the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act and establish a new cabinet-level department of global development. Short of that, elevating the director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to a cabinet-level position could signal that the US regards economic development as a critical tool in its efforts to increase global human welfare.
Other countries can similarly rethink their diplomatic strategies and how they define diplomacy and security. This will require their legislatures to play a role. In the US, Congress is responsible for deciding how much funding each federal agency and programme gets. In the 2019 fiscal year, defence accounted for about half of the Federal government’s total discretionary spending, while the entire international affairs budget amounted to less than 4%.
Congress can help to build America’s diplomatic capacity by devoting more resources to reforming and increasing funding to the State Department and USAID. In addition, via its oversight role, it can prevent the executive from relying too much on military tools. At its most assertive, Congress can revoke its authorisations for the use of military force, block US arms sales, and restrict or place conditions on funding for security cooperation.
Faced with a global pandemic and climate change, political leaders around the world should re-examine exactly what makes their citizens more or less secure. They will find that investing in domestic resilience and international diplomacy and development makes more sense than boosting military budgets. As Biden prepares to take office, we need a collective surge of new global diplomacy to enable greater cooperation in the face of common threats.
•Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning in the US State Department (2009-11), is CEO of the think tank New America, Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, and the author of Unfinished Business: Women Men Work Family.
•Alexandra Stark is a senior researcher at New America.
By Anowia, Victoria Tochukwu and Omaliko, Emeka Franklin
The basic thrust of all public protests is to create a means for people to object to, or complain in a public way about a repulsive situation, condition, or something they perceive as wrong, with a view of aggregating and building support to correct it. Strictly speaking, the means of most public protests involve the occupation of public spaces, rallies, marches, petitions, and etcetera. In contemporary times however, the internet has opened new means of public protests, particularly, via various social media channels such as Twitter, Facebook, among others. Sequel to the above, this work therefore examines the impact of social media on the socio-political orientation cum consciousness of Nigerians during the #EndSars protest. Communication theory was adopted as the theoretical framework while documentary data was generated and analyzed using content analysis. This paper observed that the social media impacted on the sociopolitical consciousness of the people by providing opportunity for reorientation of attitudes, beliefs, sentiments, and values of the people towards their socio-cultural environment, thus, leading to greater awareness and mass involvement in processes that can midwife desired change. Conversely, the utilization of social media during the course of the #EndSARS protests, has advertised the porousness of such platforms, and has brought the question of its regulation to the fore. This is primarily consequent upon its tendency to encourage instant reports of fake news, panic messages, and unreliable or unconfirmed information and updates. The study suggests measures like equipping relevant agencies and journalists with technical capabilities in cyber security and cyber intelligence in regulating the shortfalls of Social Media.
Key words: Social Media, Protest, Sociopolitical Orientation
Introduction
Basically, protests are often aimed at stopping or reforming laws or public polices, and are therefore usually directed at the government. It is more or less a subset of the entire gamut of civil unrest; however, while a public protest is within the confines of the law in Nigeria- as guaranteed in sections 39 and 40 of the CFRN, 1999 (as amended), and as seen in the case of Hadiza Bala Usman v. Commissioner of Police; and as also by extension, guaranteed in international laws such as Article 21 of the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and Article 11 of the 1981 African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights; other civil unrest such as riots are unlawful, and in fact, criminal. This is as provided in sections 69 and 71 of the Criminal Code in Nigeria.
To be sure, Nigeria has witnessed plethora of civil unrest springing across several regimes and administrations, some of which are ‘the April 1978 Ali Must Go Protests’, ‘the May 1989 SAP Riots’, ‘the July 1998 Protests after the death of MKO Abiola’, ‘the Occupy Nigeria Protest of January 2012’, and of recent, ‘the October 2020 ENDSARS Protests’- which is herein being appraised.
Theoretical Framework
In analyzing this study, the Communication theory was adopted consequent upon its relevance to the subject matter, specifically in relation to the impact information circulation played in shaping the people’s consciousness and sociopolitical orientations during the #EndSARS protest. According to Emekwue : 2002, the theory is also known as cybernetics( Science of Communication), and is primarily centered on information circulation and the effects in a political system.
To be sure, the theory was popularized by Nobert Wiener and Karl W. Deutsch in 1948 and 1966 respectively; laying the theoretical foundations for the multidisciplinary application of cybernetics in studying the flow of information in systems with feedback loops, be they biological, mechanical, cognitive, or social.
Along this line, Wiener, 1948 contends that information sent and responded to (feedback); and the level of functionality of the mediums for such information circulation, impact largely on the quality of the system, thereby either promoting or denigrating the system’s maintenance. Similarly, Emekwue : 2002 while lending credence to Deutsch, 1966, observes that the quality of feedback as necessitated by the communication mechanisms, shapes the effectiveness of the system in pursuing its goals and maintaining itself to receive and absorb shocks and strains, and thence accommodate changes and variations affecting values, such as social orientations and political decisions.
In line with the forgoing, the relevance of the communication theory to this study is hinged on its explication of the role cybernetics (technological and internet-oriented platform such as the social media), played in serving as a medium of steady communication of information to the people which ultimately shaped their consciousness and sociopolitical orientation, spurring them to action. The #EndSARS protests therefore became a feedback from the people in reaction to the plethora of information in relation to police brutality being disseminated through the social media. This ultimately led to change in certain policies in general, and the disbandment of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), in particular.
Method of Data Collection/ Analysis
This study employed documentary method of data collection. Contents of documentary materials related to the subject matter such as newspapers, published articles and so on were examined.
In addition, this work utilized content analysis as the method of data analysis. This method helped in making replicable and valid inferences by interpreting textual materials and systematically evaluating them. The meaning were extracted and based on logical chain of evidence, inferences were drawn upon and conclusion made.
Summary Account of the #End SARS Protest
In 1992, the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) of the Nigerian Police was formed as a dedicated Police unit to combat armed robbery and other serious crimes. The squad functioned under different conditions from the regular police, wore plain clothes, carried specialist weapons, operated mostly covertly in unmarked vehicles and were also used as a rapid response team (Ruppei & Arowobusoye, 2020). However, SARS has over the years metamorphosed into a force associated with harassment of innocent citizens, extortion at gunpoint, and extrajudicial killings of suspects (Ojewale, 2020).
Complaints about SARS are not new. People have been speaking out online since 2017 about the unit, and there have been several, unsuccessful attempts by the government to scrap it, but the catalyst for the recent nationwide protests came in early October when a video that showed a SARS officer shooting a young motorist in Ughelli, in Delta state, then pushing his body out of the car and driving off with the dead man’s Lexus SUV. Within days, crowds of young people gathered in Nigerian cities to demand the abolition of SARS. It sparked the use of the #EndSARS hashtag and the youths decided to hold an offline march to air their grievances.
The protesters’ demands at the beginning were straightforward: The federal government should abolish SARS, provide justice to victims of police brutality, and reform the police. This year’s protests follow on previous activism and government announcements that SARS would be demobilized in 2014, then again 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019 yet, SARS officers continued to act with impunity, committing armed robberies, rapes, other acts of torture and extrajudicial killings like the one in Delta State (Abosede, 2020).
Amnesty International documented 82 cases of police brutality in Nigeria between 2017 and 2020. In a damning report published in June 2020 the human rights organization said people in SARS custody were “subjected to a variety of methods of torture including hanging, mock execution, beating, punching and kicking, burning with cigarettes, water boarding, near-asphyxiation with plastic bags, forcing detainees to assume stressful bodily positions and sexual violence.”(Busan, 2020).
Protesters faced teargas, water cannons, and live ammunition during their peaceful marches. However, participants erected tents and DJ booths at various sites across the country. Some camped overnight outside the Lagos State Assembly, while others chanted ‘Solidarity forever,’ sang the national anthem repeatedly and held multi-faith prayer sessions as well as a “festival of lights,” to honor the dead, held at the now infamous Lekki toll gate.
The End SARS protests began with a focus on police brutality, but have extended to other dimensions of corruption, human rights violations and underdevelopment in Nigeria. The Worsening economic conditions and bleak projections for the future have only fanned the flames. The country has barely recovered from the economic recession that started in 2016, and the fall in global oil demand (and compounded by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic) sparked more economic crisis, institutionalized corruption, and state profligacy have drawn more Nigerians into poverty.
The foregoing coincided with eight months of closure of educational institutionsdue to strikes held by university lecturers, leaving many young people alienated and angry. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the second quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate in Nigeria stood at a staggering 27.1 percent and the underemployment rate at 28.6 percent. Of the 21.7 million unemployed, young people (aged 15 to 34) account for a whopping 34.9 percent. They also account for 28.2 percent of the 22.9 million underemployed Nigerians. Youth were already incensed by reports of high-level elites’ corruption, galloping inflation, and unprecedented levels of unemployment, and now the government has announced increases in the price of fuel and an electricity tariff (Ojewale, 2020).
The End SARS protests sought to make Nigerian citizenship mean something tangible and worthwhile for young people. It attracted massive global support with solidarity protests in UK, US, Germany, and other parts of the world. Celebrities such as Kanye West, John Boyega and Rihanna among a host of others gave their support, shining a global spotlight on the #EndSARS hashtag. Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey tweeted about the movement, while his platform gave verified blue tick status to some who were prominent in it and created an #EndSARS emoji symbol.
In addition, the movement provided free medical assistance for those injured in the protests and rapid response volunteer legal assistance to help free those arrested, while also doing some CSR along the way, including raising money to buy prosthetic limbs for two amputees who joined the marches on crutches. There was no discernible leadership in the decentralized structure of the movement and the young people were quick to reject any person who tried to insert themselves as a leader because they feared being compromised.
On October 11th, the government disbanded SARS and set up a new team, purportedly not including former SARS officers, which is called the Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT), currently in training. It is questionable if this new arrangement will result in a positive change, as a restructuring and reorientation of the policing system towards an improved security sector and governance reform is needed.
On Tuesday, October 20, men in army uniforms and other police units opened fire with live ammunition and killed protesters at the Lekki Toll gate in Lagos ostensibly to enforce a 24-hour curfew imposed by the state governor earlier that day. It is pertinent that those responsible for the egregious human rights abuses, particularly the killings of protesters, are held accountable by the government (Ruppei & Arowobusoye, 2020). Figures from Amnesty say that at least 12 people died.
Following days of silence, President Buhari addressed the nation on Thursday but failed to address Tuesday’s military attack on peaceful protesters. The speech was poorly received and many said it failed to show empathy or any accountability for the deaths of Nigerians.
The Role of Social Media in the Mobilization, Coordination, and Sustenance of the #End SARS Protests.
Strictly speaking, the means of most public protests involve the occupation of public spaces, rallies, marches, petitions, and etcetera. In contemporary times however, the internet has opened new means of public protests, particularly, via various social media channels such as Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, and suchlike. This development is accompanied with certain attendant impacts on the sociopolitical orientation of Nigerians. Accordingly, it created a milieu for the manifestation of sociopolitical consciousness, particularly among the young populace; as it facilitated the dissemination of information in relation to the protest in real time.
Connections can be drawn between the movement for Black lives in the United States and the End SARS protests in Nigeria — both were triggered by the impunity of police violence upon marginalized communities; both movements featured dramatic outpourings of young people who had been written off by established politicians as disaffected or lazy; both movements made savvy use of social media.
The #EndSARS protest morphed organically as young people shared documented, particularly graphic images of alleged atrocities of SARS officials on social media platforms. The outcry become more vociferous from online hash tags into street protests in what feels like a tipping point for a generation of young Nigerians. The young people utilized social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp to rally, mobilize, organize, and sustain waves of protests to locations across the country. For instance, when dozens of people converge at a location to host their own protests, they share their location on Twitter asking for “reinforcements”—a move that has seen crowds go from a few dozens to hundreds within hours in some places.
Alternatively, strategic locations are pre-identified online with people then encouraged to come out and protest. In one such cases, thousands of young people responded to calls to come out before 6am on Oct. 12 to shut down Lekki toll gate—a key transit point between Lekki, an upmarket Lagos neighborhood, and the city’s main business district. The move resulted in miles-long lines of traffic jams and severe disruptions to activity in the city. It also proved effective as it forced the Lagos state governor to show up and address the protesters in person a few hours later (kazeem, 2020).
The Nigerian youths made concerted effort in pushing the #EndSARS hash tag tweets to enable the movement gain International recognition. These revelations provoked public protests throughout the major cities, followed by vociferous outrage on social media channels. In fact, according to (Kazeem, 2020), about 28 million tweets bearing the ENDSARS hash tag were accumulated on Twitter alone. This development as occasioned through the social media, instantly launched the happenings thereof to the international community, and consequently, Nigerians in diaspora and other sympathizers engaged in solidarity protests in major cities of the world, for example, the premier league footballers in England and American hip hop stars, International political figures like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, lent their voices in condemning the Federal Government violent crackdown of protesters while foreign media organizations such as BBC, CNN, Al jazeera, and New York Times covered the social protest event.
The Impact of Social Media on the Sociopolitical Orientation and Consciousness of Nigerians at the Course of the #EndSARS Protests
Basically, the sociopolitical orientation and consciousness of the people reinforce the level of political mobilization and participatory democracy in a state. Accordingly, (Cox et al, 1998), observes that such orientation and the attendant mobilization underscore “the process by which a passive collection of individuals in a society is transformed into active group in the pursuit of common goals or coerced into political participation”. Such orientation and mobilization of people through the instrumentality of the media has been argued to carry with it the power to promote individual participation, and the more intense, more effective and more convincing it is; the more it gets people to participate in the process by virtue of raising more consciousness, (Goldstein & Ridout, 2002). The participation comes in various strata, and involves the input-output mechanisms typical of a political system, wherein the people through such participatory mechanism and feedbacks, react to government policies, actions and inactions. The social media has fueled these workings by serving as a platform for regular information that creates the needed consciousness and participation.
To be sure, access to information is sine quo non in a democracy because knowledgeable people who are well informed are those whose consciousness and sociopolitical orientations are shaped through such information. From the events of the #EndSARS protests, clearly the social media readily plays a vital role in this regard. Specifically, it exposed people, particularly the young populace to social and political information. Just as in rhyme with (Gil De Zunga, Molyneux & Zheng, 2014), such platforms provide a tool for participation, while at the same time providing opportunity for interaction between the political elite and the people, and making the political system seem more accessible to the citizens, (Odunlami, 2014).
Most information in relation to the police brutality in Nigeria and the repulsive activities of the Special Anti-robbery Squad (SARS) were revealed through the social media. In fact, as stated earlier, the protest is traceable to the Twitter campaigns of 2017 and October 2020 against the police brutality. The social media thence provided the channels for the publicity of the protests, and the mobilisation of more participation. This confirms the findings of various studies (Kalyango & Adu-Kumi 2020, Bae 2014, Ogochukwu 2014, and etcetera) that overtime social and political participation can stem from steady and undiluted access to sociopolitical information. Accordingly, the more exposed the people are to news and information about public policies, activities of government and its agencies, the more they will participate thereof, (Bae, 2014).
Along this line, the major attribute of social media is the choice which it offers individuals to access the social and political information they like, bypassing the gatekeeper role of traditional media, (Policy and Legal Advocacy Center, 2011). Supporting this observation, (Bae, 2014) noted that giving the high level of penetration of sociopolitical information on social media, and the limited control over the flow of information on it, young people can easily encounter both socially and politically engaging information online. As evident throughout the #EndDSARS protests, such information and ready online channels for publicity, in turn holds the potential of impacting on the sociopolitical consciousness of the people by opportunity for reorientation of attitudes, beliefs, sentiments, and values of the people towards their socio-cultural environment, thus, leading for greater awareness and mass involvement in processes that can midwife desired change.
In line with the foregoing, and as early as 2001, (Barkar 2001) drew attention to how the internet was used by individuals, institutions, and nations alike to represent their culture and to promote national identity. In fact, he argued that the internet holds the potentials of reinforcing nationalistic feelings and more mass participation. This observation has been brought to limelight through the preponderance of social media platforms in contemporary times. To be sure, sequel to the recent #EndSARS protests in Nigeria, it is evident that the social media has both direct and positive impact as it appears not to have only reinforced nationalistic feelings among Nigerians, but has also been instumental in tilting the political culture of Nigerians from parochial and subject to participant orientation, as far more of the young populace became involved in the protestation.
In other words, through the instrumentality of social media platforms, notably Twitter and Facebook, Nigerians were armed with ample awareness, and real time evidence or reports of incidences of police brutality across the country; and the aggregation and building of support to correct it were visibly seen across the country, thus, spurring the hitherto seeming inactive Nigerians to action. People thence moved from the level of little or no awareness of the system, to the level of active participation in the processes that may culminate the desired result. Essentially, as (Chikendu, 2002), observed in relation to participant culture, such orientation avails the people the full grasp of the in-put and out-put structures of their sociopolitical environment as a whole. This was evident at the course of the #EndSARS protests, as people took activist role for themselves by protesting against police brutality. Clearly, this became achievable consequent upon the peculiarity of social media outlets which differ radically from traditional or orthodox media such as newspapers, magazines, radio and television broadcasting, and suchlike.
The Implication of the use of Unverifiable Information on Social Media during the #EndSARS Protests
Information and communication technology has changed rapidly over the past 20 years with a key development being the emergence of social media. It has become powerful tool for communicating rapidly and without intermediary gatekeepers, like editors (Adepetun, 2020).
On September 2020, a statistical report on why People share Information on Social Media was published by Simplilearn. They posit that 84% people share information to support a cause or issues they feel strongly about ; 94% share to pass valuable information and 49% of these respondents influence action about products by sharing; 68% use social sharing to build image and demonstrate who they are and what they stand for; 78% share to interact, grow, get a sense of fulfillment, nurture relationships and stay in touch with others, and 69% share to participate and feel involved in things happening in the whole world (Simplilearn, 2020).
The method of obtaining information from social media comes with risks as the medium often struggles to mitigate fake news. For example, former Zamfara Senator, Kabiru Marafa opined that the #EndSARS protest is driven by Southerners looking to discredit Buhari rather than the legitimate grievances of the youth (Iroanusi, 2020). People have been fed with information and misinformed via the online space and sometimes, without proper checks and balances, lots of people have taken decisions rather rashly, which they later regretted. Checks showed that property including government establishments, prisons, broadcast stations, newspaper house, police stations, hospitals, bus stations and buses, banks, to mention just a few were severely damaged during the #EndSARS crises. Shopping malls, grocery stores, ATMs were looted to the peak by hoodlums wielding dangerous weapons. These attacks have put thousands of people into serious problems, especially debts, and scars, which they will live with for the rest of their lives.
Indeed, the events of October, 2020 in Nigeria with the popular hashtag #EndSARS have influenced opinions, and subsequently threw up both substantiated and unsubstantiated information in the online space. The tagging of shooting of protesters in Lagos at the Lekki toll gate as “Lekki Massacre” triggered the huge unrest, and subsequently led to wanton destruction of lives and properties in retaliation by hoodlums, who hijacked the entire process for their gains. There were massive destruction of lives, properties, and investments belonging to State government. Also, those perceived to be owned by certain political figures in the state were not spared, they were brought down to ashes. There were trouble spots in virtually all the states of the federation, which the social media and menace of fake news contributed significantly to their destructions as a result of misinformation.
The pandemonium has again stressed the need on the regulation and sensitization of the usefulness of Social media. Prior to now, there have been moves on the part of the Federal Government to regulate the social media space, targeted at curbing the spread of fake news. The Minister of Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed last year, 2019 stated the government’s discomfort with the use of social media in the country, with a consequent proviso that the sector must be sanitized.
Recommended Measures that can be considered to Regulate the Ostensible Pitfalls of Social media
Conversely, the utilization of social media during the course of the #EndSARS protests, has advertised the porousness of such platforms, and has brought the question of its regulation to the fore. As hinted earlier, this is primarily consequent upon its tendency to encourage instant reports of fake news, panic messages, and unreliable or unconfirmed information and updates. Little wonder, (Kalayango, 2011), observed that there are attempts by dictatorial regimes to control the social media space with legal and extralegal measures. He opined that they fear the dawn of a new social media environment where citizens can mobilize themselves to overthrow governments. Such fears have undoubtedly come to limelight in Nigeria, as the dismantling of the Special Anti-robbery Squad- a government security agency within the Police Force was borne out of the sociopolitical consciousness and mobilizations occasioned through the social media, a clear demonstration of such possibility.
The call for the regulation of social media has undoubtedly been met with square refusal from a vast majority of Nigerians, as it negates certain fundamental rights that are already guaranteed, particularly in section 39 of the CFRN, 1999 (as amended), which provides for both freedom of expression and the entitlement to mediums of information dissemination, without interference. Interestingly, section 1, subsection 3 of the same constitution provides that if any law is inconsistent with the provisions of the constitution, the constitution shall prevail, and that other law shall, to the extent of the inconsistency, be void. Little wonder the Anti-social Media Bill introduced at the Nigerian Senate on 5th November, 2019, was botched.
Nevertheless, Uwaje, a former President of the Institute of Software Practitioners of Nigeria (ISPON), speaking to The Gardian, described the social media as organized crisis. According to him, it is estimated 3.43 billion people will be using social media networks by 2023, a figure representing 44 per cent of the estimated 7.79 billion global population. He said the core challenging issues of social media is about Human Attitude. He avers that is why it has become imperative to involve Sociologists in the mainstream of re-imagining the structure and content administration on platforms. For him, Sociologists should be involved in the analytic roadmap for repositioning the New Media to deliver maximum benefit to society (Adepetun, 2020).
Also, according to the Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Jidaw Systems, Jide Awe, there is need to prioritize and embark on practical digital literacy for all. In order to seize opportunities and overcome such challenges of the digital age, citizens must be equipped with digital education and 21st century transferable skills. In addition to the use of common digital tools and applications, communications, team work, creativity and most especially critical thinking skills. Cyber security and technology ethics must be part of such digital literacy. All these non tech skills are particularly important to ensure social media and technology is utilized and developed in a secure and responsible manner (Adepetun, 2020).
Relevant government agencies must themselves get up to speed in terms of social media perception to influence in ways that are sincere, honest, empathetic and credible. They must facilitate the transparent and free flow of information to promote public interest on social media and counteract harmful practices and undue and unfounded speculation. And these relevant agencies will need to be equipped with technical capabilities in cyber security and cyber intelligence.
More so, there is need for the promotion and generation of interest in ethical and responsible social media and technology practices, for example, by virtue of encouraging ethical online content creation and the ethics of social media in programmes for journalists. Appropriate action should be taken against ethical violators and mischief makers. Government should get proactive with the governance of social media by engaging with relevant stakeholders in the technology community, civil society and youth groups as well as the social media platforms to dialogue and agree on common and innovative approaches as well as on data protection and privacy issues.
Conclusion
It has been said that information is power. Without a means of distributing information, people cannot harness the power. One positive impact of social media is in the distribution of information in today’s world. Platforms such as Face book, LinkedIn, Twitter and others have made it possible to access information at the click of a button.
Along these lines of thought, it is not extraneous to admit the proneness of social media to fallacious information, however, the same can equally be seen in traditional media; moreover, the Cybercrime Act of 2015, and laws against libel and slander as contained in sections 373 and 375 of the Criminal Code already provide a viable and reasonable option for redress in the face of any fallaciousness of information from the social media. To be sure, the impact of social media on the sociopolitical orientation and awareness of Nigerians appears to outweigh the inadequacies thereof.
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By recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has developed a powerful mechanism for organising and advancing its economic transformation. Judging by the tremendous success of Shenzhen and Shanghai, it seems clear that China will continue to reap the rewards of this approach for decades to come.
SHANGHAI – On October 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the southern city of Shenzhen, where he delivered a speech celebrating 40 years of progress since the special economic zone (SEZ) was established there and set a path for the future. A month later, Xi headed to Shanghai’s Pudong district – which was designated China’s first “new area” 30 years earlier – for the same purpose. The centrality of Shenzhen and Shanghai to China’s future development could not be clearer.
When China first created the Shenzhen SEZ, some questioned its judgment. For example, as a postgraduate student at the University of Cambridge in the 1980s, James Kai-sing Kung, now of the University of Hong Kong, asked why the government would choose an unknown village like Shenzhen, rather than an economic centre like Shanghai or Tianjin, to serve as an incubator for Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” strategy.
The decision must, Kung concluded, be politically motivated; China’s government must have been preparing for the return of neighbouring Hong Kong, which was already a global financial centre. But, while it is true that sovereignty over Hong Kong was formally transferred back to China in 1997, Hong Kong’s impact on Shenzhen’s development was rooted less in sovereignty than in proximity.
If presented with an aerial view of Shenzhen’s Futian District and Hong Kong’s New Territories today, the latter areas, south of the Shenzhen River, would appear desolate. Meanwhile, Shenzhen, with its bustling ports and glittering skyline, is clearly populated and prosperous.
This is not to say that other areas of Hong Kong aren’t flourishing. In fact, that is the point. Shenzhen’s development along the border with Hong Kong reflects the so-called urban pileup effect: the accumulation of densely urbanised clusters along the frontier with a more developed area, enabling the less developed region to seize cross-border spillover opportunities.
The same phenomenon can be seen along the border between Mexico and Texas. An aerial view of the region would reveal sprawling suburbs on the wealthier American side – making it appear almost barren – and dynamic, populous cities on the Mexican side, where local workers flock to jobs at American-owned manufacturing plants, among other opportunities.
As Deng predicted, Hong Kong, with its developed financial system and economic dynamism, has had similarly powerful spillover effects on Shenzhen. The result is a thriving metropolis, where annual economic output will soon reach CN¥3 trillion ($456 billion) – one-third of the Guangdong province’s total.
Shenzhen is thus a major engine of the Greater Bay Area, which covers nine cities around the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong province, plus Hong Kong and Macau. The region already accounts for about 13% of mainland China’s GDP, and its share is growing.
Shanghai’s geographical location – on China’s east coast, near the mouth of the Yangtze River – has been similarly crucial to its success. Yet, far from piggybacking on the dynamism of a neighbor, Shanghai has always led the development of the Yangtze River Delta region, and has been the beating heart of the Yangtze River Economic Belt – which covers nine provinces and two megacities – since the belt’s launch in 2016.
In the last 30 years, growth in the Pudong new area has reinforced Shanghai’s regional primacy, while also driving development in an increasingly integrated Yangtze River Delta. Today, the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for more than 46% of China’s total output. This region, together with the Greater Bay Area, constitutes about 60% of China’s total output.
So, Shanghai and Shenzhen are both vital to China’s economic future. But neither is more important than the other; each has a unique role to play.
As the more mature and developed player, Shanghai has long been a leader in equipment manufacturing. Yet its economic structure is far from stationary: the city is now being transformed into a research and development hub and a centre of trade, finance, and modern services.
Shenzhen, for its part, is on track to become China’s Silicon Valley. In the last 20 years, this young, dynamic city has outpaced Shanghai in hard-technology development, with dozens of world-renowned companies – including Huawei, Tencent, Ping An, DJI, BYD, and SF Express – concentrating there.
To be sure, in terms of overall technological prowess, Shanghai still ranks first. But, rather than replacing Shanghai in the areas where it leads, Shenzhen is becoming a kind of laboratory for experimentation, not only with technology, but also with policies that incentivise and facilitate innovation. Shanghai cannot play that role, because it must continue to serve as a predictable environment for global trade and finance.
Guiding the development of an economy as large and diverse as China will always be a difficult challenge. But, by recognising and investing in the strengths of pioneering cities and regions, China has developed a powerful mechanism for organising and advancing its economic transformation. Judging by the tremendous success of Shenzhen and Shanghai, it seems clear that China will continue to reap the rewards of this approach for decades to come. (Project Syndicate)
•Zhang Jun is Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank.
UNITED STATES - MAY 18: Signs hang from the Meridian Heights apartment building in Northwes Washington on Monday, May 18, 2020. (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call)
As financial markets celebrate the coming vaccine-led boom, the confluence of epidemiological and political aftershocks has pushed us back into a quagmire of heightened economic vulnerability. In Dickensian terms, to reach a “spring of hope,” we first must endure a “winter of despair.”
NEW HAVEN – Suddenly, there is a credible case for a vaccine-led economic recovery. Modern science has delivered what must certainly be one of the greatest miracles of my long lifetime. Just as COVID-19 dragged the world economy into the sharpest and deepest recession on record, an equally powerful symmetry on the upside now seems possible.
If only it were that easy. With COVID-19 still raging – and rates of infection, hospitalisation, and death now spiraling out of control (again) – the near-term risks to economic activity have tipped decidedly to the downside in the United States and Europe. The combination of pandemic fatigue and the politicisation of public health practices has come into play at precisely the moment when the long anticipated second wave of COVID-19 is at hand.
Unfortunately, this fits the script of the dreaded double-dip recession that I warned of recently. The bottom-line bears repeating: Apparent economic recoveries in the US have given way to relapses in eight of the 11 business cycles since World War II. The relapses reflect two conditions: lingering vulnerability from the recession, itself, and the likelihood of aftershocks. Unfortunately, both conditions have now been satisfied.
Vulnerability is hardly debatable. Notwithstanding the record 33% annualised snapback in real GDP growth in the third quarter of this year, the US economy was still 3.5% below its previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. With the exception of the 4% peak-to-trough decline during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the current 3.5% gap is as large as that recorded in the depths of every other post-WWII US recession.
Consequently, it is ludicrous to speak of a US economy that is already in recovery. The third quarter snapback was nothing more than the proverbial dead cat bounce – a mechanistic post-lockdown rebound after the steepest decline on record. That is very different than the organic, cumulative recovery of an economy truly on the mend. The US remains in a deep hole.
Just ask American consumers, who, at 68% of GDP, have long accounted for the dominant share of US aggregate demand. After plunging by an unprecedented 18% from January to April, total consumer spending has since recouped about 85% of that loss (in real terms). But the devil is in the details.
The rebound has been concentrated in goods consumption – big-ticket durables like cars, furniture, and appliances, plus soft-good nondurables like food, clothing, fuel, and pharmaceuticals that have more than made up for what was lost during the lockdown-induced plunge. In September, goods consumption in real terms was 7.6% above its pre-pandemic January 2020 high. The bounceback benefited significantly from a surge in online buying by stay-at-home consumers, with e-commerce going from 11.3% of total retail sales in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 16.1% in the second quarter of 2020.
But services consumption, which makes up over 61% of total US consumer spending, is a different matter altogether. Services accounted for fully 72% of the collapse in total consumer spending from January to April. While services have since partly bounced back, as of September, they had recouped just 64% of the lockdown-induced losses earlier this year.
With COVID-19 still raging, vulnerable American consumers remain understandably reluctant to re-engage in the personal interaction required of face-to-face services activities such as restaurant dining, in-person retail shopping, travel, hotel stays, and leisure and recreation activities. These services collectively account for almost 20% of total household services outlays.
The understandable fear of personal interactions in the midst of a pandemic brings us to the second ingredient of the double-dip: aftershocks. With the current exponential rise in COVID-19 cases, lockdowns are back – not as severe as in March and April but still aimed at a partial curtailment of person-to-person activity heading into the all-important holiday season. Precisely at the moment when the economic calendar typically expects an enormous surge of activity, the odds of a major seasonally adjusted disappointment are rising.
This poses serious risks to the still-battered US labour market. Yes, the overall jobless rate has come down sharply from 14.7% in April to 6.9% in October, but it remains essentially double the pre-COVID low (3.5%). With weekly claims for unemployment insurance only just starting to creep up in early November as new curfews and other lockdown-like measures are put into place, and a dysfunctional US Congress failing to agree on another relief package, the risk of renewed weakness in overall employment is growing.
The news on vaccines is truly extraordinary. While the logistics of production and distribution are daunting, to say the least, there is good reason to be hopeful that the end of the COVID-19 pandemic may now be in sight. But the impact on the economy will not be instantaneous, with vaccination unlikely to bring about so-called herd immunity until mid-2021 at the earliest.
So, what happens between now and then? For a still vulnerable US economy now in the grips of predictable aftershocks, the case for a relapse, or a double-dip, before mid-2021 is all the more compelling.
To paraphrase Charles Dickens, this is the best of times and the worst of times. As financial markets celebrate the coming vaccine-led boom, the confluence of epidemiological and political aftershocks has pushed us back into a quagmire of heightened economic vulnerability. In Dickensian terms, to reach a “spring of hope,” we first must endure a “winter of despair.”
•Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
There is an outrage on social media after a Twitter influencer, Lazy Writa narrated how a lady was allegedly given a thread and needle to sew her ripped jeans before she could get a National ID in Port Harcourt.
He stated that this happened even after the lady paid N3,000 to get the I.D Card. He also claimed that another girl was sent home for wearing a short skirt on grounds of “not having respect for the Nigerian government”.
Lazy Writa said this happened at Elimgbolu Civic Centre Portharcourt today.
He tweeted;
“They gave this girl needle and thread to sew her ripped jean together before they attended to her today just to get a National I.D
After paying N3,000 too Nigeria’s problem is very deep
The other girl with a short skirt was sent back because “You don’t have respect for the Nigerian government” On top National ID that you are paying for
Anyways, this happened at Elimgbolu Civic Centre Portharcourt today For a temporary card o It is well with Nigeria”
Many Nigerians have since reacted, read some below
Do you think the action was necessary? Comment below.
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