Statements From  Bye – elections 

By IfeanyiChukwu Afuba

Reports and results from Saturday, August 16, 2025 bye-elections, present an electoral update on the state of our democracy. The exercise is significant, having taken place in 18 constituencies spread across 12 States. It’s equally noteworthy that the supplementary polls occurred at mid-term of the current electoral calendar, leaving lessons ahead of the next general election in February 2027. Beyond issues bordering on the conduct of election, the electoral outing is important for study and analysis of political behaviour. To what extent are circumstances of the poll a reflection of the Nigerian condition?

Patterns emerging from the by – polls may well give hints about direction and momentum of the next political dispensation.

But, how did we arrive at the coincidence of 18 national and state assemblies’ by – elections in both the north and south of the country taking place the same day? By what unusual phenomena, did the vacancies occur in close proximity? It turns out not to be the case. The openings had occured at different times, some with long gaps as the geographical distance between them. Jigawa State’s Garki –  Babura federal constituency seat became vacant May 10, 2024 following the death of representative Isa Dogonyaro. Edo State Central Senatorial seat was declared vacant by Senate President Godswill Akpabio in December 2024. But both replacement elections, with a seven month maturity difference, were held same day, August 16, 2025.

There were other cases of long vacancies including the fourteen month absence of Anambra South District in the Senate following the death of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah in July 2024. What reasons had INEC for not conducting some of these elections before now? Could there be such cogent reasons as to override the necessity of giving the affected constituencies the right of representation? Who takes responsibility for this development? How would these constituencies be compensated for  losses arising from avoidable marginalisation? INEC as a public service organisation ought to address these concerns.

Were there any strategic gains in waiting to hold the elections the same day? If so, were these borne out from outcome of successful polls? This does not appear to be the case. No significant changes marked out the most recent elections as progressively better than previous exercises. Late arrival of election materials was observed in some polling centres. In places where voting did not begin late, other issues, namely, voter apathy and poor security presence were encountered. While a citizen’s choice to boycott an election is within the province of individual liberty, the overall preparedness of INEC for the elections is not easily seen. The electoral body appears not to realise that sensitisation is an integral part of it’s responsibility. INEC often displays aloof posture when it comes to public enlightenment. It’s not enough to issue ‘lifeless’ notice of election. Between INEC and the National Orientation Agency, citizen engagement was neglected. Added to the electoral body’s credibility crisis, insufficient awareness impacted on voter turnout.

Field reports indicated that the rerun polls witnessed breaches of peace, law and order in some areas while voter inducement was a general trend. Incidents of violence would not be a surprise given the scant security presence in some polling stations. One would expect strong security detachment considering that this was not nationwide, but a narrowed exercise. The territorial limitation obviously frees up more operatives for deployment. Again, we wonder why this potential advantage was not influential in INEC’s decision on delayed, collective polls rather than as they became due. Allegations of vote buying was a common feature in the elections. Widespread voter inducement can be seen from a number of angles. It’s a reflection of endemic corruption in Nigerian society. Political parties’ offer of money for ballot is an act of desperation.

The stakes are too high for the parties –  too high because political authority is about the most lucrative office with the least work in Nigeria. And so, each party seeks to outdo the other by fair or foul means in the contest for power. For the average voter, it’s first, an economic motivation. Low purchasing power of the naira drives the quest for more sources of money. The voter further rationalises the practice on the ground that once in office, there’s no accountability, no access to the people elected.

To what extent does voter gratification influence poll outcome? It’s difficult to determine how much weight the money factor carries in our elections. The scheme is a complicated one. It’s a deal which by it’s secret nature, neither INEC nor security agents can interfere with. Compromised officers of the agencies are themselves on the lookout for their cut of election windfall. While there may be isolated candidates who refrain from the act, all political parties are assumed to engage in the vote bazaar. On the face of it, there is level playing ground; no party is cheated in the vote market. In reality,  the political parties in control of government(s) are at advantage – for obvious reasons.

Consequently, the number and revenue – status of governments a political party has, can be contending factor in our elections. By this yardstick, new political parties and  parties contesting in regions where they lack governmental presence have an uphill task of winning elections therein.This scenario played out in the by elections of August 16, 2025. Of the eighteen electoral prizes, APC won twelve, APGA two, PDP and NNPP one each, while two polls were declared inconclusive.  Individual candidates, with sufficient resources, even as newcomers, can also make the difference and win. And this is where the danger of monetised democracy lies. Drug barons, fraudsters, religious fundamentalists, and other extremists with the financial means can buy their way into office.

However, electoral behaviour is not a one track road. Another qualification to the money factor is  the brand loyalty rule. Just as some consumers stick to a particular product irrespective of competing alternatives, some voters develop strong attachment to certain political parties. A sense of identity, group solidarity and loose ideological connection often glues such voters to the adopted parties. It takes radical events to rupture the bond. Sometimes it’s also about a cult- like leader of the party. In the second republic, we saw traces of this phenomena with Obafemi Awolowo’s UPN and Nnamdi Azikiwe’s NPP.

In the present dispensation, Mohammadu Buhari’s ANPP/CPC, Peter Obi’s LP and Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP are notable. Ordinarily, the electorate tend to be more comfortable with political parties they have interacted with over the years than new ones. The logical extension of this familiarity is the theory of “all politics is local.” Wikitionary explains the concept: “Ultimately, constituents and voters are concerned most about issues that affect their personal lives and home communities and they vote accordingly.” Interestingly, we will find that in the referenced by elections, the political parties majorly won in their areas of concentration, in their traditional strongholds. This is readily seen in NNPP’s win in Kano State and APGA’s victories in Anambra State.

Anambra State results stand out as a result of her current political complexion. The political equation comprises the APGA which won the 2003 general elections in Anambra, Imo and Enugu States according to exit poll results. With only the Anambra governorship retrieved, APGA has continued as the dominant political force since then. But something changed in 2023, with Bola Tinubu’s APC victory and Peter Obi’s stunning presidential bid. Obi’s audacious challenge battered the political order in the southeast like a hurricane, so much so that in the State assembly election, APGA struggled to win seventeen out of thirty seats. Obi, who aggregates deeply – felt regional, generational, governance anger, looks set to take another disruptive shot at the presidency.

For its part, Tinubu’s APC has embarked on a maximalist interpretation of victory which seeks to suck up formidable opposition forces. A wave of destabilisation which started from the PDP has also set Labour Party and the new alliance vehicle, ADC, rocking with instability. In the event, the prospect of presidential power  unleashed considerable mobilisation along APC and LP/ADC lines in Anambra State. Obi was personally on ground to campaign for the ADC candidate in the House of Assembly election. However, APGA’s landslide victories in both the House of Assembly and senatorial polls of August 16, 2025, expands the political calculations.

The result of the bye – elections in Anambra State point towards the dynamics of power competition. Even as presidential politics has proved a huge asset in party support base, it is not without some limitations. Defeat of Obi’s candidate in the House of Assembly poll can only be explained in the context of distinction between presidential and other elections. The separation’s effectiveness is to be seen not merely in terms of category but, more importantly, in time frame. The very fact of the present not being a presidential election season went a long way in removing presidential clout from the by – elections. And this goes beyond the Obi factor. It would have proved a better day for the APC hopefuls in Anambra State if the by – elections had coincided with presidential poll.

As it were, Governor Charles Soludo’s APGA would still have to contend with Mr Peter Obi’s presidential quest during the 2027 general elections. The threat may be reduced with a first – class presidential candidate on the ballot for APGA.  Adopting Tinubu as the party’s candidate in line with Soludo’s current script will be double jeopardy. It will still leave APGA vulnerable to Obi’s bandwagon effect. Secondly, successive absence in presidential contest is taking it’s toll on the once promising party. It continues to impoverish and demarket APGA as a third – class, one state party. As 2027 draws closer, INEC has work to do to improve it’s performance. With no visible chances of electoral reform yet and the power battle intensifying, democracy in Nigeria is on trial.

The views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of Law & Society Magazine.