Distinguished Senior Advocate Wilcox Abereton in the above piece set out in clinical summary the issue of the defection of 27 members of the Rivers. State House of Assembly from the opposition PDP to the ruling APC to which I agree in principle if we were in a country where the Rule of Law is supreme and where the various arms of government had any semblance of independence or where the institutions were strong.
Let me say from the onset that ours is an imperial presidency with enormous powers and we are a constitutional democracy only on paper.
Having said that let me express my regret for the point of divergence with Wilcox Abereton SAN because his piece might push HE Simi Fubara into Political suicide with ignominy and into the oblivion.
Now this is not about a matter pending in court but a political crisis that requires a political solution besides legal exposition and adumbrations notwithstanding.
Even it were a legal question for the courts strictly speaking, I’m unable to see how HE Simi Fubara will defeat the APC led Federal Government if he goes against a peace initiative signed by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu who is the National Security Adviser.
With the greatest respect to Abereton SAN, he has spent quality time on what the law is, citing judicial authorities to back it up as if Nigeria is a true democracy or as if the country has any viable, strong and trusted institution or arm of government as we speak.
That beautiful essay by Wilcox Abereton, SAN would have made sense in fairer clines where the Rule of Law holds sway and with strong and independent legislative and judicial institutions, definitely not in Nigeria. As we speak there’s a committee set up by the CJN just to review conflicting Judgments across the country
Simi Fubara knows that he cannot flout Presidential directives brokered by President Bola Tinubu and endorsed by the National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu to end the crises because he has nobody or authority to turn to. Let’s cut the rhetorics and be real to ourselves by asking a simple question: which judicial or legislative arm will assist come to the aid of Governor Simi Fubara? Is it the APC controlled National Assembly that will within 5 minutes assent to any Declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers State? Is it the Military of Police who is under the control of Aso Rock?
Where will Governor Simi Fubara turn to? Is it the Courts ? Which Court ? He will lose in every court up to the Supreme Court. All the precedents the learned Silk is citing or any other precedents or judicial authority has no meaning in this country anymore, going by the recent decisions from the various courts in this country .
Finally since Governor Simi Fubara has only 4 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly to work with out of 32, the learned Silk knows that the issue of whether or not there is a faction or division in the PDP is a question of fact to be proved in court.
From where I’m standing no court in this country today will declare those 27 seats the Rivers State House of Assembly vacant. If it happens at trial then it will quashed on Appeal and Simi Fubara will be impeached the very next day Governor Simi Fubara will lose at some point in the appeal process and is thrown out.
The odds are against Governor Fubara and if he insists on the path suggested by the learned Silk then the ensuing violence or crisis will present a cover to the FGN to declare a State of Emergency and appoint a close Nyesom Wike nomineee as Sole Administrator.
Fubara will lose at the National Assembly. Fubara will lose in the courts. Fubara will lose if a State of Emergency is declared. The only win for Simi Fubara is a political solution which I acknowledge is skewed in favour of Nyesom Wike and like a smart soldier who knows when to beat a retreat and re-strategize, Simi Fubara has done the needful rather than be disgraced out. The odds are against him and this is politics which requires a political solution. He should ignore any fantastic legal arguments and pride fueled grandstanding and rather focus of delivering qualitative leadership to the people of Rivers State at the moment.
Chief Nkereuwem Udofia Akpan Constitutional Lawyer Human Rights Activist writes from Abuja.
