By Lillian Okenwa
Nigeria has abundant gas, large hydro and solar potential and a transmission network that is being expanded. Distribution companies are also upgrading parts of their networks. Yet millions of Nigerians still depend on generators. The problem is no longer simply how much electricity the country can produce, but whether the entire system can move it from the source to the consumer.
There is a peculiar rhythm to Nigeria’s electricity story. An announcement arrives promising a new gas development, a new power project, a transmission upgrade or another large investment in electricity access. Officials celebrate the development, investors talk about the opportunities it will create and Nigerians are told that a more reliable power supply is within reach.
Then night arrives, the electricity disappears, and generators begin their familiar chorus. It has become a ritual that as darkness settles over another Nigerian evening this week, the customary soundtrack will return.
It would be easy to dismiss this as another failure of a country that has spent decades unable to turn its natural resources into reliable public services. But the picture is becoming more complicated. Nigeria is not standing still. New generation projects are being developed, transmission infrastructure is receiving substantial investment and distribution companies have been replacing transformers, upgrading feeders and expanding parts of their networks.
Yet the improvements do not always translate into more electricity for consumers.
The reason lies in the way Nigeria’s power system is constructed. Electricity has to pass through several stages before it reaches a household or factory, and each stage depends on the one before it. Gas has to reach generating plants; the plants have to produce; the transmission network has to carry the electricity; distribution companies must be able to receive and distribute it; local transformers and feeders have to withstand the load; meters have to record consumption; and the companies must collect enough revenue to maintain and expand their networks.
A weakness anywhere along that chain can leave the consumer in darkness.
Nigeria’s enormous energy endowment makes the situation particularly difficult to explain.
The country has some of Africa’s largest natural gas reserves, substantial crude oil resources, significant hydroelectric potential and excellent solar conditions across much of its territory. It also has coal deposits, although the future of coal-fired generation is complicated by environmental concerns, financing constraints and the global movement towards lower-carbon energy.
Natural gas, however, remains central to the electricity system. Most of Nigeria’s grid electricity comes from gas-fired plants, which means that the reliability of the power sector is closely tied to the ability of producers to supply gas consistently and at prices that allow generating companies to operate.
That is where one of Nigeria’s oldest contradictions persists. A country with vast quantities of natural gas can still have power stations operating below their potential because the gas required to run them is unavailable, pipelines are constrained, contracts are unsettled or the economics of supplying gas to power producers do not work.
Gas that remains stranded or is flared cannot light a home.
The same principle applies to every other energy resource. Having sunlight does not produce electricity without solar panels, storage, transmission or mini-grids. Having water resources does not produce hydroelectricity without dams, turbines and transmission lines. Discovering another gas field does not automatically increase the amount of electricity available to a factory in Aba or a household in Kaduna.
Turning resources into electricity requires infrastructure, investment and a market capable of sustaining both.
The generation numbers tell only part of the story
Nigeria’s installed generation capacity has grown over the years, but installed capacity is not the same thing as electricity actually delivered to consumers.
A power plant may be capable of generating hundreds of megawatts but produce considerably less because of gas shortages, mechanical problems, maintenance, financial difficulties or constraints elsewhere in the system. Even when the electricity is generated, it still has to be evacuated from the plant and transported through the transmission network.
This is why the argument over Nigeria’s power supply cannot be reduced to the number of generating plants in the country.
A new plant is useful only if it has reliable fuel, can operate at a reasonable level, can evacuate its output and has buyers able to pay for the electricity.
For years, Nigeria’s transmission system was one of the most obvious bottlenecks. That, too, is beginning to change.
The Transmission Company of Nigeria says its network now has the capacity to transmit more than 8,700MW, following the deployment of 89 transformers and other projects supported by more than $1.4 billion in loans and grants from development partners.
The figure is significant because the highest volume of electricity TCN says it actually wheeled was 5,801.84MW in 2025.
The gap between those figures has become part of the new debate. TCN’s position is that the transmission network can now carry substantially more electricity, provided there is sufficient generation and the distribution companies are able and willing to take the additional power.
That argument moves the spotlight further down the chain.
The DisCos are not sitting still
For years, the Distribution Companies have carried much of the public anger over poor electricity supply. Consumers see their bills, their meters and the local transformer serving their streets. When the lights stay off, the DisCo is usually the institution they blame.
But recent figures show a sector that is investing and, in some areas, expanding its capacity.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, compiled from information supplied through the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, show that electricity supplied by the DisCos increased by 6.76 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Their revenue rose by 23.75 per cent to N630.93 billion, while the number of metered customers increased by 12.18 per cent, from 6.21 million to 6.97 million.
Those numbers do not absolve the DisCos of responsibility for poor service. They do, however, complicate the familiar claim that the companies are simply failing to invest in their networks.
There have been upgrades.
Transformers have been installed and substations expanded. More customers have been metered. Distribution infrastructure has improved in parts of the country.
The difficulty is that a better distribution network cannot manufacture electricity that is not available upstream.
Nor can additional electricity solve every distribution problem.
A DisCo may receive more power from the transmission network but still have feeders that are overloaded, transformers that cannot handle additional demand, technical losses on its network or commercial losses caused by energy theft and unpaid bills.
This is why the current argument between the different parts of the electricity industry is so difficult for consumers to follow. TCN can point to unused transmission capacity. DisCos can point to electricity they are not receiving in sufficient quantities. Generating companies can point to gas shortages or unpaid invoices. Gas suppliers can point to the economics of the electricity market.
Each participant may have a legitimate complaint.
The consumer remains without power.
The infrastructure is beginning to change
There are encouraging signs that some of the physical bottlenecks are finally receiving serious attention.
In Lagos, TCN recently commissioned two 60MVA transformers and nine new 33kV feeders at the Lekki transmission substation, doubling its transformation capacity from 120MVA to 240MVA. The Federal Government said the project would increase bulk electricity available to Ikeja Electric by about 80MW.
A similar expansion at the Afam IV transmission substation in Rivers State added a 150MVA transformer and increased the substation’s transformation capacity from 120MVA to 240MVA, giving the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company greater capacity to receive and distribute electricity.
These projects matter because they address a problem that has often received less attention than generation. Electricity cannot be delivered simply because it exists. The network has to be physically capable of carrying it.
The same applies at the local level.
A distribution company can announce that it has improved its infrastructure, but consumers will only experience the benefit when electricity reaches the feeder serving their community and the local transformer can handle the load.
That is why the quality of the final stretch of the network matters almost as much as the generating plant hundreds of kilometres away.
The money problem
There is another obstacle that cannot be solved with transformers alone.
The electricity market has to pay for itself.
Distribution companies need revenue to maintain networks, replace damaged equipment, install meters and expand their systems. Generating companies need to be paid. Gas suppliers need to receive payment. Transmission infrastructure requires maintenance and expansion.
When electricity is stolen, bills are not paid or commercial losses remain high, the consequences move through the entire system.
This is one reason the tariff debate is so politically difficult.
Consumers are understandably reluctant to pay more for electricity that they do not receive consistently. At the same time, a system that does not generate enough revenue cannot sustain the investment required to improve reliability.
The problem becomes circular: Poor service reduces willingness to pay, weak collections limit investment, inadequate investment contributes to poor service, and consumers increasingly turn to generators and other alternatives.
The generator then becomes not merely an emergency device but a parallel electricity system.
For businesses, that is an enormous burden. The cost of diesel, petrol, maintenance and replacement equipment is built into the cost of production. A manufacturer competing with a company in a country with dependable grid electricity begins with a significant disadvantage.
Households pay the same hidden surcharge.
They buy generators, fuel, inverters, batteries and solar systems because the grid cannot always be trusted.
Nigeria effectively pays twice for electricity: once for the formal system and again for the alternatives required when the formal system fails.
Why another discovery is not enough
This is the part of Nigeria’s energy story that is often lost whenever a new discovery is announced.
The country certainly needs more energy resources. More gas development, for example, can help power generation, provide feedstock for industry and support export earnings. More renewable projects can expand access in areas where the national grid is difficult or expensive to extend.
But the value of those resources depends on what happens after they are discovered.
A gas field does not become electricity until the gas is produced, processed, transported and delivered to a plant capable of converting it into power. The electricity produced then needs a transmission network capable of carrying it, followed by distribution infrastructure capable of delivering it to the customer.
Nigeria has historically treated these as separate problems.
The consumer experiences them as one.
This is why the country’s current investment in transmission and distribution deserves to be watched closely. If additional generation comes on stream at the same time that the transmission network is expanded and distribution companies strengthen their feeders and substations, the country could finally begin to see improvements that are large enough to be felt outside government statistics.
But if the investments continue to move at different speeds, one bottleneck will simply replace another.
There is little point generating 8,000MW if the system cannot move it. There is little point building transmission capacity for 8,000MW if generation remains well below that level. And there is little point delivering additional power to a distribution company whose local network cannot safely distribute it.
The three stages have to advance together.
The case for distributed power
There is also a growing recognition that the national grid cannot be the answer to every Nigerian electricity problem.
Solar mini-grids and other distributed-energy systems are becoming increasingly important, particularly in communities where extending conventional transmission and distribution infrastructure would take years or cost more than a smaller local system.
The World Bank has made electricity access a major part of its new partnership framework with Nigeria, with an ambition to expand access to tens of millions of people over the coming years.
That will require more than connecting new customers to the grid.
A connection without dependable electricity is a statistic, not a transformation.
For a rural community, a functioning solar mini-grid may be more valuable than waiting for a national-grid extension. For an industrial cluster, embedded generation may provide a more reliable source of electricity than a distant power plant. For households, rooftop solar and battery storage can reduce dependence on generators.
These alternatives will not eliminate the need for a stronger national grid. Nigeria’s growing population and industrial ambitions require a much larger electricity system than it has today.
They do, however, provide another route to reducing the enormous economic cost of waiting for the grid to solve every problem.
The measure that matters
Nigeria has spent decades measuring progress in megawatts, generating capacity, kilometres of transmission lines, transformers installed and customers connected.
All of those figures are useful.
None answers the question that matters most to the person paying the electricity bill.
How many hours of reliable electricity did the customer actually receive?
That is the measure that connects the entire system.
It captures whether gas reached the power plant, whether the plant generated, whether TCN transmitted, whether the DisCo distributed, whether the local transformer worked and whether the customer received enough electricity to make the bill worthwhile.
Nigeria does not need to choose between exploiting its energy resources and repairing its electricity networks.
It needs both.
The country cannot afford to keep discovering valuable resources while leaving them stranded, just as it cannot afford to build generation without the transmission and distribution infrastructure required to deliver the output.
The recent upgrades suggest that some of the pieces are finally being put in place. The test will be whether they begin working together.
For Nigerians, the desired outcome is not another impressive capacity figure or another photograph of a newly commissioned transformer.
It is much simpler.
A factory should be able to plan its production without calculating how much diesel it will need. A hospital should not have to treat generator fuel as a permanent part of its operating budget. A small business should not have to choose between buying stock and keeping its generator running.
And at home, when a Nigerian reaches for the switch after sunset, the expectation should be that electricity will come from the grid often enough for the generator to become what it was supposed to be in the first place: a backup.
Nigeria has spent too long asking how much energy it possesses.
The more useful question now is how much of that energy can be turned into electricity, moved across the country and delivered reliably to the people and businesses that need it.
Until the answer improves, the country’s energy wealth will remain much more impressive on paper than it is at the socket.
This video on Benue Residents Turn To Generators As Power Supply Worsens illustrates how persistent blackouts force communities across Nigeria to rely on generator hums as their daily soundtrack.
